How do I know when I will run short of cash?
Not from totals. “Receivables 46,000, payables 32,000” looks comfortable and can still mean you cannot pay on the eighth, because the receivables land on the twenty-first. What answers the question is a day-by-day calendar with the running balance on every row — and a clear line between confirmed amounts and expected ones, because a marketplace payout date is an estimate in a way an invoice due date is not.
Totals hide timing
Two businesses with identical receivables and payables can be in completely different positions depending on the order of the dates. The useful question is not “do we have enough” but “on which day do we not”.
What the calendar needs
- Every inflow and outflow, dated.
- A running balance carried down the rows.
- A marker separating confirmed from expected.
- The lowest point in the period, called out above the table.
Without the last one you have to read every row to find the problem.
The planning layer
Once you can see the shortfall, the next question is what to do about it — move a payment, split it, chase a collection. That work should happen on a scenario layer that writes to nothing: invoices, customer balances and the bank should not change because you were thinking out loud.
A planning screen that quietly edits records is worse than a spreadsheet.
Checklist
- Is the forecast ordered by date with a running balance?
- Are expected and confirmed items visually distinct?
- Is the lowest balance in the period surfaced, not buried?
- Does your planning view leave the underlying records untouched?
Frequently asked questions
How do I forecast cash flow?
List every expected inflow and outflow by date and carry the balance down the rows. The lowest point in the period is the number that matters, not the total.
Should marketplace payouts count as cash?
No. They are receivables with an expected date. Counting them as available cash is how a profitable business misses a payment.
What is the difference between confirmed and expected?
A confirmed item has a contractual date, like an invoice due date. An expected one is an estimate, like a marketplace payout. Mixing them makes the plan look more certain than it is.